Quick Update

I’ve seen some debate on various blogs and forums regarding whether the current El Nino is East- or West-based. In recent months, we saw a warming trend begin in the far equatorial Pacific, in particular the Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 basins. As time has progressed, however, the warming trend has spread westward and now encompasses much of the equatorial Pacific from east of the Dateline to the South American coastline. This can be visualized in the image below, which is a cross-sectional cut along the Equator in the Pacific Ocean region. Although the general trend is warming in all basins, it is worth noting that the most recent frame or two has displayed some tendency for cooling along the surface in the western Nino regions.

Winter Outlook, Temperature and Precipitation Maps

* Note these are considered preliminary. An update will probably be issued in mid-November, based on: (1) extent of Eurasian snow cover; (2) October NAO; and (3) November weather patterns, including unanticipated changes in ENSO and the like.

Temperature

Precipitation

Cleveland Temperature History, October to December

October

	WARMEST		COLDEST
1	61.4	1947	44.9	1869
2	61.2	1900	45.2	1925
3	60.2	2007	46.2	1876
4	60.2	1879	46.5	1917
5	59.9	1971	46.7	1895
6	59.5	1920	47.1	1988
7	59.4	1963	47.5	1987
8	59.2	1949	47.6	1889
9	58.8	1919	47.9	1980
10	58.7	1956	48.0	1888